FEC candidate totals, cycle 2026. Every candidate below reports through the same date — a comparison across different coverage windows is not a comparison. Cash on hand is the number that matters the day after a primary; receipts count money already spent winning one.
Every baseline this project built was Republican primary turnout, which is the wrong electorate for November. The general history is now built from the turnout archive for 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024, all-party, by county, with method mix. 2018 and 2022 are the comparable midterms; 2024 is reference only.
🔁 Primary vs General, side by side
Segment-by-segment framings for soft Democrats and unaffiliated voters, built on North Florida's own economy rather than national talking points. Every framing is an untested hypothesis; the facts underneath are sourced and tiered.
Share of their own party's primary vote in each county, against their own district-wide share. This is the share, not the vote count — Leon casts twelve times Liberty's ballots, so a raw count would just re-rank the counties by size.
No Party Affiliation voters plus Democrats who did not vote for Green. Green's weakness is measured in each precinct wherever the county publishes precinct results; where it does not, the county rate is used and the row says so. Ranked on absolute voters, because a percentage of a small precinct is not a canvassing plan.
81,422 unaffiliated voters, scored on three things at once: how many there are, whether they actually turn out, and what terrain they sit on. Volume alone just ranks big precincts. Propensity is an index against each county's own average, measured from the 2022 general — the comparable midterm general — because a closed primary tells you nothing about voters who cannot vote in it.
Who Green is, what she has actually committed to, and the four attacks that would backfire. Internal only.
Three candidates took 66.5% of the Democratic primary between them. Their voters are not one group. A Democrat in Republican-leaning territory can hear a Republican message; a Democrat in a deep-blue campus precinct cannot, and the realistic outcome there is that they stay home in November rather than cross over. Raising the race's salience in that second set works against us, so the two are counted separately and never summed.
R-leaning precincts only, ranked on NPA plus Zateslo-aligned Democrats. Polling place and address included so this can go straight to field.
A soft Democrat is not a Rogers voter. This ranks where persuadable volume sits, not where persuasion will work. ← back to the dashboard