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Raw counts favor Democrats early because they vote by mail. The fair test is each party against its own 2022 habit: mail returned so far as a share of that party's 2022 final mail, and early votes as a share of its 2022 final early vote. Compare the parties to each other, not to 100%.
Edge = Republican mail pace minus Democratic mail pace, in points. Red means Republicans are returning ballots faster than their own norm relative to Democrats in that county; blue means the reverse. Early-vote columns fill in as counties open (Bay and Leon Oct 19, most others Oct 24).
Precincts grouped by registration (R share minus D share). Index = each precinct's share of its county's ballots so far, divided by its normal share. 1.00 is normal; above 1.00 that kind of precinct is voting more than usual, below 1.00 less. The county feeds report precinct totals for all parties combined, so this reads party through where people live.
Each precinct colored by its index (share of its county's ballots so far vs normal). Pick a county to zoom. Switch to Precinct type to see the partisan layout underneath. Hover a precinct for its numbers.
Click a column to sort. Gray italic index = too few ballots to read yet (under 15 expected).
Ballots mailed and not yet returned, by registration (DOS state file, prior day). This is who still has a ballot at home. Oct 22 at 5pm is the last day to request one.