CD2 race call
Wed Aug 19, 6:05 PM ET · auto-refreshes every 60s · generated from
cd2_results.json + site_context.json
ELIMINATED — CALL ITKeith Gross cannot reach Austin Rogers even taking 100% of the 0 ballots still out. This is arithmetic, not a projection.
87,627ballots counted
0still outstanding
106%of 82,993 expected
1,078outstanding in Central (closes 8 PM ET)
Board
| Candidate | Votes |
|---|
| Austin Rogers | 26,701 |
| Keith Gross | 14,366 |
| Evan Power | 13,831 |
| Luke Murphy | 13,456 |
| Jim Norton | 11,408 |
| Audie Rowell | 4,767 |
Counties — sorted by what is still out
| County | Expected |
Counted | Outstanding |
Complete | Precincts | Status |
|---|
| Walton CT | 4,875 | 4,261 | 614 |
87% | 13/13 | ok |
| Jackson CT | 6,562 | 6,141 | 421 |
94% | 14/14 | ok |
| Taylor ET | 3,122 | 2,800 | 322 |
90% | 14/14 | ok |
| Wakulla ET | 5,264 | 5,098 | 166 |
97% | 12/12 | ok |
| Jefferson ET | 2,368 | 2,230 | 138 |
94% | 16/16 | ok |
| Calhoun CT | 2,377 | 2,334 | 43 |
98% | 13/13 | ok |
| Lafayette ET | 96 | 78 | 18 |
81% | 1/1 | ok |
| Bay CT | 21,773 | 24,227 | 0 |
111% | 30/30 | ok |
| Franklin ET | 1,586 | 1,615 | 0 |
102% | 8/8 | ok |
| Gadsden ET | 1,847 | 2,236 | 0 |
121% | 25/25 | ok |
| Gulf ET | 3,092 | 3,114 | 0 |
101% | 10/10 | ok |
| Holmes CT | 3,258 | 3,311 | 0 |
102% | 8/8 | ok |
| Leon ET | 18,780 | 21,857 | 0 |
116% | 134/134 | ok |
| Liberty ET | 1,548 | 1,567 | 0 |
101% | 8/8 | ok |
| Madison ET | 2,295 | 2,430 | 0 |
106% | 11/11 | ok |
| Washington CT | 4,150 | 4,328 | 0 |
104% | 12/12 | ok |
Why this page's expected total differs from the dashboard's projection.
The dashboard shows 83,014 — the model's projection, which uses
PROJECTED early vote. This page shows 82,993, which swaps in the early vote the
counties ACTUALLY reported now that voting has closed. The whole
21-ballot gap is that one substitution.
Neither is wrong; this page is the more current of the two and is the right denominator
tonight.
Completeness is measured in ballots, not precincts.
"142 of 324 precincts" means little here: CD2 precincts are very unequal and
the district votes in two zones an hour apart. Expected = each county's KNOWN banked vote
(mail + early, already published) plus its projected Election Day.
ELIMINATED is arithmetic — the runner-up cannot win taking 100% of what is left.
DECISIVE is modelled with the runner-up over-performing their market by 1.60x while
Rogers is held to 0.65x of his; it is a judgement, not a certainty.
Never call off the raw board before 8:15 PM ET. Leon reports first and is Rogers's
weakest county; Bay reports an hour later and is his strongest. Running third at 7:15 is the
forecast, not a result.