🗳️ AI
Poll Engine
— CD2 Florida
📊 Dashboard
🌙 Election Night
🎯 Predictions
🗺️ Map
🗳️ Poll
📊 Demographics
✏️ Build Poll
⚡ Simulate
📈 Results
📰 Local Issues
🎯 Calibrate
⚙️ Settings
CD2 District Overview — 16 Panhandle Counties
County-by-County Demographic Profiles
Quick Add — CD2 Republican Primary
🗳️ Full 8-Way Primary Race
⭐ Candidate Favorability (all 8)
📋 Top Issues Survey
⚡ Full Battery (all three above)
Custom Question
Question Type
🥊 Head-to-Head Matchup
📋 Support / Oppose
⭐ Favorability Rating
🔧 Custom (Yes / No / Scale)
Question Text
+ Add to Poll
Poll Questions (
0
)
— add questions, then go to Simulate →
🗳️
Use Quick Add above or build a custom question.
Run Configuration
Election Universe
Republican Primary (~83,569 voters)
General Election (~402,280 voters)
Custom population
Custom Population Size
Confidence
98%
95%
75%
50%
Margin of Error
± 2%
± 3%
± 5%
Sample size
—
Questions loaded
0
Issue modifiers
0
Calibration
None
Mode
⚡ Statistical
🤖 AI Personas
Claude Haiku plays each voter. ~12 sec for 150 personas.
Instant weighted-probability model. No API needed.
🤖 Run AI Poll
No questions? Go to
Build Poll
first.
Progress
AI Mode
Ready
🗳️
Ready to Simulate
1.
Build Poll
— add your questions
2. Configure universe & confidence above
3. Hit Run
📈
No Results Yet
Run a simulation first to see results here.
View Question:
📄 Export CSV
{ } Export JSON
Overall Results
Results by County
By Age Group
By Race
By Education
🤖 AI Issue Analysis
Describe a local news event or auto-generate the top CD2 issues. Claude identifies affected counties, sentiment shift, and intensity.
⚡ Auto-Generate Top CD2 Issues
🤖 Analyze Issue
Add Issue Modifier
Issue Name
Description
(optional — sent to AI)
Affected Counties
(hold ⌘ to multi-select)
All CD2 Counties
Bay
Calhoun
Franklin
Gadsden
Gulf
Holmes
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Leon
Liberty
Madison
Taylor
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
Sentiment Shift
0
(− anti-establishment + pro-establishment)
Intensity
Low — background concern
Medium — active local discussion
High — dominant issue
+ Add Modifier
Active Modifiers (
0
)
— applied to next simulation run
📰
No modifiers yet. Use AI Analysis to identify an issue, then add it here.
Upload Real Poll Data
Upload actual in-person or phone responses. The engine blends them with AI results using Bayesian updating — more real data = tighter predictions.
CSV File
county,age,race,party,question_id,response
BAY,45,white,REP,q1,Evan Power
LEO,38,white,REP,q1,Austin Rogers
📤 Upload & Apply
Status
Real responses
0
Bayesian weight
0%
Last upload
Never
✕ Clear Data
Data Preview
📋
Upload a CSV of real responses to calibrate the AI model.
⚡ Worker Connection
The Cloudflare Worker runs all AI simulations. Your Anthropic API key is stored as a Worker Secret and never touches the browser.
Worker URL
🔗 Test Connection
📊 Statistical Mode Weights
Only applies to Statistical simulation. AI mode uses Claude directly and ignores these weights.
Party Registration
40
Historical Turnout
30
Demographics
20
Local Issues
10
ℹ️ System Info
AI Model
Claude Haiku 4.5
Default personas (AI)
150 · ~12 sec
Max personas (AI)
300 · ~20 sec
District
FL-CD2 · 16 counties
Primary universe
~83,569 likely voters
General universe
~402,280 voters
AI Poll Engine ready
CD2 · 16 counties · ~875,000 residents