⚠️ PRIMARY ARCHIVE — Aug 18 2026 Republican primary. Frozen for the record; nothing here reflects the general. Rogers vs Green general dashboard →
CD2 District Overview — 16 Counties
County-by-County Demographic Profiles

Quick Add — CD2 Republican Primary

Custom Question

Poll Questions (0)  — add questions, then go to Simulate →
🗳️
Use Quick Add above or build a custom question.

Run Configuration

Sample size—
Questions loaded0
Issue modifiers0
CalibrationNone
Claude Haiku plays each voter. ~12 sec for 150 personas.
No questions? Go to Build Poll first.
🗳️
Ready to Simulate
1. Build Poll — add your questions
2. Configure universe & confidence above
3. Hit Run
📈
No Results Yet
Run a simulation first to see results here.

🤖 AI Issue Analysis

Describe a local news event or auto-generate the top CD2 issues. Claude identifies affected counties, sentiment shift, and intensity.

Add Issue Modifier

Active Modifiers (0)  — applied to next simulation run
📰
No modifiers yet. Use AI Analysis to identify an issue, then add it here.

Upload Real Poll Data

Upload actual in-person or phone responses. The engine blends them with AI results using Bayesian updating — more real data = tighter predictions.
county,age,race,party,question_id,response
BAY,45,white,REP,q1,Evan Power
LEO,38,white,REP,q1,Austin Rogers

Status

Real responses0
Bayesian weight0%
Last uploadNever
Data Preview
📋
Upload a CSV of real responses to calibrate the AI model.

⚡ Worker Connection

The Cloudflare Worker runs all AI simulations. Your Anthropic API key is stored as a Worker Secret and never touches the browser.

📊 Statistical Mode Weights

Only applies to Statistical simulation. AI mode uses Claude directly and ignores these weights.

ℹ️ System Info

AI ModelClaude Haiku 4.5
Default personas (AI)150 · ~12 sec
Max personas (AI)300 · ~20 sec
DistrictFL-CD2 · 16 counties
Primary universe~83,569 likely voters
General universe~402,280 voters
AI Poll Engine ready CD2 · 16 counties · ~875,000 residents
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until polls close