CD2 Sign-Wave Plan — Early Voting + Election Day
Austin Rogers, FL-02 Republican primary. Built 2026-07-29.
Two plans below. Both are built off the projected in-person universe — the 68,666 ballots (78% of all ballots) that cannot be cast by mail and must show up at an early-voting site or a precinct.
0. Three things to fill in before this is usable
a. Early-voting site addresses. Each county Supervisor of Elections sets its own EV sites and hours. I do not have them, and they are not derivable from the voter file. Every SOE publishes them; they are usually 1 to 4 sites per county. Pull them and drop them into Section 2.
b. Early-voting dates. Florida's mandatory EV window for an Aug 18 primary is Aug 8 through Aug 15. Counties MAY add days (Aug 3-7 and Aug 16) and set their own hours. You said Aug 10 — that may be when your counties actually open. Confirm per county, because a county that opens Aug 8 gives you two extra days.
c. Election-day polling locations. Precinct numbers below come from the voter file. The physical polling place for each precinct comes from the SOE.
1. Where the in-person vote actually is
| County | In-person ballots | Zone | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bay | 16,009 | CT | 23.3% |
| Leon | 10,644 | ET | 15.5% |
| Jackson | 6,799 | CT | 9.9% |
| Wakulla | 5,396 | ET | 7.9% |
| Washington | 4,136 | CT | 6.0% |
| Walton | 4,116 | CT | 6.0% |
| Taylor | 4,072 | ET | 5.9% |
| Holmes | 3,106 | CT | 4.5% |
| Gulf | 2,971 | ET | 4.3% |
| Calhoun | 2,423 | CT | 3.5% |
| Madison | 2,395 | ET | 3.5% |
| Jefferson | 2,350 | ET | 3.4% |
| Liberty | 1,688 | ET | 2.5% |
| Gadsden | 1,393 | ET | 2.0% |
| Franklin | 1,087 | ET | 1.6% |
| Lafayette | 81 | ET | 0.1% |
Top 4 counties = 56.6% of the in-person vote. The bottom 6 together are 13%. That ratio should drive how the days are allocated.
2. Early-voting sign-wave plan
2a. The principle
EV sites are few and fixed, which makes them far more efficient than precincts: one site captures an entire county's early vote instead of 1/30th of it. A county with one EV site can be fully covered by one person standing in one place.
So: volunteers hold the small counties every day; Austin rotates. His presence is worth more where the vote is dense and where he is not already locked in.
2b. County tiers
Tier 1 — daily volunteer coverage, Austin visits 2-3x each Bay (16,009), Leon (10,644), Jackson (6,799), Wakulla (5,396) Together 56.6% of the in-person vote.
Tier 2 — volunteer coverage most days, Austin visits once Washington (4,136), Walton (4,116), Taylor (4,072), Holmes (3,106), Gulf (2,971)
Tier 3 — volunteer coverage on the heaviest EV days only Calhoun, Madison, Jefferson, Liberty, Gadsden, Franklin, Lafayette
Lafayette is 81 in-person ballots. Do not spend a candidate hour there.
2c. Geographic clusters (so nobody drives a loop twice)
- Bay — its own cluster, every day
- Leon + Wakulla — east, 25 min apart
- Jackson + Calhoun + Liberty — north-central, off I-10
- Washington + Holmes — northwest, off I-10
- Walton — west (DeFuniak Springs)
- Gulf + Franklin — coastal, US-98
- Taylor + Madison + Jefferson + Lafayette — far east
2d. Austin's EV rotation (assuming Aug 10-15)
| Day | Morning | Afternoon | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 10 | Bay | Bay | Open the week in the biggest county |
| Tue Aug 11 | Leon | Wakulla | East cluster; Wakulla is the endorsement hole |
| Wed Aug 12 | Jackson | Calhoun / Liberty | I-10 north-central run |
| Thu Aug 13 | Washington | Holmes → Walton | Northwest sweep |
| Fri Aug 14 | Gulf | Franklin → back to Bay | Coastal, ends home |
| Sat Aug 15 | Bay | Bay | Heaviest EV day; close where the votes are |
Saturday is typically the single busiest early-voting day. Spend it in Bay.
Taylor, Madison and Jefferson are the counties this rotation shortchanges — they are far east and expensive in drive time. Cover them with local volunteers and, if the schedule allows, a single Austin swing on a day this plan leaves open.
3. Election Day — Tuesday, Aug 18
3a. Route options
| Route | Counties | In-person reached | % of in-person | Drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Northern (I-10) | Leon → Jackson → Bay | 33,452 | 48.7% | 2h15 |
| B. Coastal (US-98) | Leon → Wakulla → Franklin → Gulf → Bay | 36,107 | 52.6% | 3h15 |
| C. Hybrid (recommended) | Leon → Wakulla → Jackson → Bay | 38,848 | 56.6% | ~3h05 |
Take the hybrid. It reaches the most voters, and the two counties it adds over the northern route are the two that matter most strategically: Wakulla is your #2 turf priority, is essentially tied, and is the one county where you have zero endorsements. Franklin (1,087 in-person) is not worth the coastal detour.
3b. The time zone works in your favor
Leon and Wakulla are Eastern. Jackson and Bay are Central. Driving west on I-10 you gain an hour, and you gain it early — which buys nearly six hours in Bay at the end of the day.
Polls are open 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM local time, so Bay's polls close a full hour after Leon's.
3c. The schedule
| Local time | Where | Precincts (voter-file numbers) |
|---|---|---|
| 7:00-8:15 AM ET | Tallahassee (Leon) | 4459, 4125, 4455 — morning rush at open |
| 8:15-8:40 | drive to Crawfordville (25 min) | |
| 8:40-9:30 AM ET | Wakulla | Precinct 2 (1,124 in-person — the biggest single precinct outside Bay), then 7 |
| 9:30-11:10 ET | drive to Marianna (~1h40) | cross into Central — clocks go back |
| 10:10-11:10 AM CT | Marianna (Jackson) | 3, 4, 7 — the three densest |
| 11:10-12:10 | drive to Panama City (~1h) | |
| 12:10-6:00 PM CT | Bay County | 20, 19, 17, 15, 18 — then finish knocking in Lynn Haven |
That is 5h50 on the ground in Bay, which is where 23% of the in-person vote is and where your endorsement base is deepest.
3d. Highest-performing precincts to prioritize
Ranked by in-person core (2024 primary voters who do not vote by mail):
- Bay — 20 (826), 19 (813), 17 (647), 15 (633), 18 (565)
- Wakulla — 2 (1,124), 7 (653), 1 (390), 12 (390)
- Jackson — 3 (590), 4 (578), 7 (570), 11 (439)
- Leon — 4459 (393), 4125 (344), 4455 (316), 4119 (313)
Note the contrast: one Wakulla precinct (2) has more in-person voters than the top three Leon precincts combined. Leon's vote is spread across 127 precincts averaging ~84 in-person each — which is why Leon gets the morning rush only and not a full day.
3e. Two rules for the day
Polls close on local time, not your watch. When Leon closes at 7:00 PM ET, Bay still has an hour. Do not let the team wind down early — the last hour in Bay is real votes.
The 6:00 PM Lynn Haven finish is right. It puts the candidate in the densest friendly turf for the final push, and Lynn Haven's municipal officials (mayor plus three commissioners) are all endorsers who can turn out with him.
4. What would sharpen this
The one upgrade that changes everything: county EV and E-day turnout files. With daily EV check-in data you would know which counties are running hot or cold and could redirect the candidate mid-week instead of following a fixed rotation. Ask each SOE for the daily early-voting turnout report — most publish it automatically during the EV period.
Turf files (download)
The walk and call lists behind this plan. Open in Excel or Google Sheets.
- priority_turf.csv — 113 precincts, 53,437 doors. Panama City DMA + Wakulla, ranked. Start here.
- pc_dma_turf.csv — 101 precincts, Panama City DMA only
- tl_dma_turf.csv — 222 precincts, Tallahassee DMA
- bay_mail_chase.csv — 20,749 Bay County voters, tiered (2.7 MB)
Columns: doors, in-person core, phoned count, phone %, expansion pool, 66+ mail pool, registered R, cumulative % of the universe. Cut turf straight off the rank column.